Some Good News about the Elections
First of all, the choice of Edwards may have Bush trailing by 15 percent by next month:
Republican strategists expect George Bush to be trailing in the polls by at least 15 per cent by next month following the announcement of John Edwards as running mate of Democrat challenger John Kerry. The Democrats are also expected to win a large polls 'bounce' from their Boston convention at the end of July.
Matthew Dowd, Bush's chief strategist, last week sent an internal memo seen by The Observer to campaign advisers, warning: 'John Kerry should have a lead of more than 15 points coming out of his convention. We should expect the race to swing wildly to his favour by early August.'
Meanwhile, some traditionally Republican Senate seats are more in play than has been the case in a while:
As the four candidates competing for an open Senate seat gathered here recently for a forum on business issues, the two Republicans on stage found themselves looking at something rare in recent Colorado politics - a clear Democratic front-runner.
In Alaska, former Gov. Tony Knowles, a Democrat, is vying for the seat now held by Lisa Murkowski, a Republican appointed by her father, Gov. Frank Murkowski, to fill his unexpired term in a move that has prompted some fallout. The Oklahoma vacancy has touched off a tough Republican primary. Democrats are rallying around Brad Carson, a two-term congressman who is running as a centrist.
But there are similarities as well. In Colorado, Oklahoma and Alaska, the leading Democratic candidate is an experienced politician with an ability to attract votes in a conservative, Republican-leaning state.